By Rose Welimo
Nairobi County governor Evans Kidero would emerge winner for the Nairobi gubernatorial seat if elections were held today.
A new survey by research firm Trends and Insights for Africa Limited (TIFA) shows Kidero would garner 36 percent of the vote beating his closest perceived rival Senator Mike Sonko at 30 percent.
The poll places other candidates including Johnson Sakaja, Dennis Waweru and Margaret Wanjiru at 3 percent each while the latest entrant Water Cabinet Secretary Eugene Wamalwa got 1 percent.
According to the poll Dr. Kidero has gained 8 percent support over the last four months though Mike Sonko’s support has remained the same.
“It is clearly a two horse race. Those new entrants who have thrown their hat into the ring have still not garnered enough support to become the third horse” says Maggie Ireri, Director TIFA Research.
The findings indicate that Evans Kidero has the strongest support base amongst those aged above 46 years at 56% against Sonko’s 21%. It also shows that Kidero has a larger appeal among those aged 18-30 years where he commands 37% against Sonko’s 31%.
“For a long time the youth have been perceived to be under the Senator Mike Sonko’s firm grip. However, the poll shows his support is dwindling amongst those aged 18-30 years” says Ms Ireri.
According to the survey, a significant number of women support the governor. 37% of females polled having confidence in him as compared to Sonko’s 27%.The males who said would vote for the
Governor are at 35% with the Nairobi Senator closely following up with 32%. Meanwhile 79 Per cent of those polled support Mike Sonko’s development record compared to 64% of Kidero’s supporters.
54% and 53% of the respondents respectively pointed out poverty and water as the most pressing problem in Nairobi that should be addressed. Roads and Education bursaries tied at 37% as another pressing issue, while Public health services is mentioned by 34% of the people interviewed as another pressing issue.
The study was conducted between 28th to 31st July 2016 where 719 registered voters were sampled. 719 adults living in the 17 sub counties in Nairobi were sampled.
The most recent opinion poll predicts a landslide win for Governor Alfred Mutua in the Machakos gubernatorial election next year.
Although Johnstone Muthama has not declared his intention to run for the top county seat, the poll shows that only 8% would vote for him if he was to vie for the Machakos gubernatorial seat.
Bernard Kiala who has been one of Mutua’s strongest critic and is currently the deputy governor has a support base of only 3%.
“The support levels for Governor Mutua are very high and they show that if any other candidate throws their hat in the ring to compete against him, it is will an uphill task to out seat him” says Ireri.
And if elections were to be held today in Kiambu County, Kabete Member of Parliament Ferdinand Waititu would trounce the incumbent governor William Kabogo who polled 22 percent against the MPs’ 49 percent support. 620 registered voters living in the 12 sub-counties in Kiambu where interviewed.