Raila ahead of Ruto by 6pc, in latest Ipsos poll

Azimio la Umoja-One Kenya Alliance coalition party presidential candidate Raila Odinga continues to enjoy a steady lead over his closest competitor, Deputy President William Ruto, according to the latest survey by Ipsos.

If polls were held today, Odinga whose popularity is at 47pc would be ahead by 6 percentage points over Kenya Kwanza William Ruto’s 41pc clearly indicating no candidate has met the 50+1 threshold which will likely force a re-run.

With just six days to the polls, the two front runners in the highly contested election, still have work to do this week to persuade voters in 11 counties that have been classified as battlegrounds.

The release of the poll may likely influence their political campaigns which officially wind up Saturday, August 6, 48 hours before the election.

The game of numbers is complicated by the undecided and undeclared voters polled at 4 and 5pc respectively.

The regions that will determine who will carry the day are Lamu, Nyamira, Mombasa, Narok, Kiambu, Marsabit, Nakuru, Bungoma, Wajir and Tanariver.

Raila Odinga support is intact in 18 counties where voter preference is above 55pc compared to William Ruto’s 17 counties.

Raila has a lead at the Coast, Nyanza North, Lower Eastern, and Southern Nyanza on the other hand DP Ruto leads in Mount Kenya and Central Rift.

The poll further predicts 85 pc voter turn out with the ODM leader being popular among the males, urbanites and older voters at 51pc while Ruto’s has a higher preference is in the rural areas at 45pc among females and 18-34 yr olds.

Ruto enjoys overwhelming support in the vote-rich Mt Kenya region at 66pc.

Voter apathy

Voter apathy is high among the youth and females in urban areas.

Whereas the effect of Wajackoya (2.9pc) and David Mwaure (0.2pc) whose popularity ratings are less than 3pc remains insignificant, Odinga’s win is pegged on how he impresses the undecided voters in Western, Coast and Central, particularly Nyndarua county.

“Mr Odinga could possibly bridge the 3% + 1 difference to the threshold to win in the first round given there is still 9% undeclared voters (5.1% who refused to disclose, and 3.8% who are undecided The undeclared voters are mainly older females in rural areas and are likely to be found in Western Kenya and Coast regions” Samuel Muthoka, the director of research at Ipsos said.

Additional information by Kamche Menza






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