Ugandans have been urged to prepare for potential impacts associated with the El Nino phenomenon which is usually associated with high levels of rainfall.
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and other Global Climate Centers reported that El Nino has been evolving since March 2023, after a long multi-year La Nina, and is likely to persist up to early 2024 in Uganda.
It has been observed that the chance that the El Nino will continue through the rainfall season of September, October, November and December (SOND), 2023 is greater than 90%.
At the end of July 2023, the Equatorial Sea Surface Temperatures (ESSTs) above sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) were experienced across the central and the eastern Pacific Ocean.
However, the Pacific Ocean and the atmosphere are yet to become fully coupled: as it has normally happened during the previous El Nino events.
However, the sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Pacific are exceeding El Nino thresholds, with climate models indicating that this is likely to continue at least up to the end of 2023.
El Nino in Uganda is often associated with heavy (enhanced) rainfall. However, it does not translate into rainfall but rather an effect that modulates weather patterns that leads to increase of rainfall over Uganda during the September, October, November and December (SOND) rainfall season.
Decision makers and the general public have been advised to develop preparedness and response actions to manage the likely impacts associated with El Nino phenomenon.