US and Iranian officials are due to meet in Geneva on Thursday for a third round of indirect talks, as President Donald Trump threatens to strike Iran if a nuclear deal is not reached.
The discussions come amid the largest US military build-up in the Middle East since the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, and with Iran vowing to respond to an attack with force.
The talks are seen as a last-ditch effort to prevent a conflict, but the chances of an agreement remain unclear.
While Trump has said he prefers to solve the crisis through diplomacy, he has also said he is considering a limited strike on Iran to pressure its leaders to accept a deal.
The president, however, has done little to explain what he is demanding in the negotiations and why there could be the need to take military action now, eight months after the US bombed Iranian nuclear facilities during a war between Israel and Iran.
Iran has rejected the US demand to stop the enrichment of uranium in its territory, but there have been indications that it is prepared to offer some concessions about its nuclear programme.
As in the previous two rounds of discussions, which were mediated by Oman earlier this month, the Iranian delegation will be led by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, while the US will be represented by special envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner.
In recent weeks, the US has sent thousands of troops and what Trump has described as an “armada” to the region, including two aircraft carriers along with other warships, as well as fighter jets and refuelling aircraft.
Trump first threatened to bomb Iran last month as security forces brutally repressed anti-government protests, killing thousands of people. But since then, his focus has turned to Iran’s nuclear programme, which has been at the centre of a long-running dispute with the West.
For decades, the US and Israel have accused Iran of trying to secretly develop a nuclear weapon. Iran insists its programme is only for peaceful purposes, though the country is the only non-nuclear-armed state to have enriched uranium at near weapons-grade level.
In his State of the Union speech to Congress on Tuesday, Trump briefly and vaguely talked about the tensions with Iran, without clearly laying out the case for strikes.
He said Iran was working to build missiles that would “soon” be capable of reaching the US, without giving details. He also accused the country of trying to “start all over again” with a nuclear weapons programme following last year’s strikes, and said he could not allow the “world’s number one sponsor of terror… to have a nuclear weapon”.
The US struck three nuclear sites in Iran last June, as it joined Israel in its bombing campaign. At the time, Trump said the facilities had been “obliterated”.
Iran says its enrichment activity stopped after the attacks, although it has not allowed the International Atomic Energy Agency’s inspectors to access the damaged sites.
“They want to make a deal,” Trump said, “but we haven’t heard those secret words: ‘We will never have a nuclear weapon’.”
Hours before the speech, however, the Iranian foreign minister posted on social media that Iran would “under no circumstances ever develop a nuclear weapon”. Araghchi also said there was an “historic opportunity to strike an unprecedented agreement that addresses mutual concerns and achieves mutual interests”.
Reacting to Trump’s address, an Iranian foreign ministry spokesman accused the US of repeating “big lies” regarding its nuclear programme, ballistic missiles and the number of protesters killed in the crackdown.
Iran’s proposals have not been made public, but the discussions in Geneva could include the creation of a regional consortium for uranium enrichment, which has been raised in previous negotiations, as well as ideas about what to do with Iran’s roughly 400kg (880lb) stockpile of highly enriched uranium.
In return, Iran expects the lifting of sanctions that have crippled its economy. Opponents of the regime say any relief would give the clerical rulers a lifeline.
But it remains unclear which conditions Trump could find acceptable for a deal. Iran has already rejected discussing limits to the country’s ballistic missile programme and ending its support for proxies in the region – an alliance Tehran calls the “Axis of Resistance” that includes Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, militias in Iraq, and the Houthis in Yemen.
Reports in US media, quoting unnamed administration officials, have suggested that Trump was considering an initial strike in the coming days on Iran’s Revolutionary Guards or nuclear sites to pressure the country’s leaders. If negotiations failed, according to the reports, the president might go as far as ordering a campaign with the aim of toppling the Iranian Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff is also said to have warned that strikes against Iran could be risky, potentially drawing the US into a prolonged conflict, although Trump has insisted that Gen Dan Caine believes it would be “easily won”.
Iran, meanwhile, has threatened to respond to any attack by striking American military assets in the Middle East and Israel.
