November is the peak month for the October-November-December (OND) “short rains” season with more impacts expected in areas experiencing heavy rainfall and those experiencing episodic heavy downpour.
The Weatherman in the November forecasts indicates that the Lake Victoria Basin, the Highlands west of the Rift Valley, the Central and South Rift Valley, parts of Northwest are likely to experience near to above-average rainfall.
The forecast comes as residents of Endo, Sambirir, and Embobut Wards in Marakwet East Constituency in Elgeyo Marakwet County have been hit by devastating landslides following the ongoing heavy rainfall in the area that is within the region the weatherman has indicated will continue to receive heavy rainfall through the month of November.
In the forecast, the Director of Meteorological Service Edward Muriuki is warning that cases of isolated flooding may occur especially in poorly drained urban centers and along rivers. “The public is advised not to drive or walk through flooded areas to avoid loss of lives,” he says and adds, “There may be cases of lightning strikes in the Highlands West of the Rift Valley especially in Kisii, Kisumu, Nandi, Kakamega and Narok Counties as well as on Mt. Elgon and its environs.”
The Weatherman further notes that Highlands east of the Rift Valley, including Nairobi County, Northeastern the Southeastern lowlands, and some areas in the Northeast are expected to receive near to below-average rainfall, while the Coastal region, most of the Northeast, and parts of Southeast are likely to experience below-average rainfall.
However, Muriuki further cautions that, rainfall distribution is expected to be poor, with isolated storms and dry spells over several parts of the country. This as livestock keepers in Mbalambala area of Garissa County are counting losses after floods swept through Manyattas following a heavy downpour killing several herds of goats and destroying property.
“Temperature is expected to be warmer than usual over most parts of the country with highest probabilities for warmer temperatures over the Central and Eastern sectors of the country while in contrast, cooler than average temperatures are expected over a few areas over the western half of the country.”
The outlook for the next three months indicates that most parts of the country will receive rainfall in November and part of December, while January is expected to be generally hot and dry.
“Rainfall is anticipated to be below the November to January long-term mean (LTM) across most areas, except for western parts of Kenya, where near-average rainfall is expected,” says Muriuki.
The Weatherman is attributing this to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) with current projections indicating that La Niña conditions are likely to persist through December 2025 to February 2026, “with a transition to El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions expected during January to March 2026 with a probability of 55% as values have fluctuated around the La Niña threshold since mid-to-late September.”
The negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains active, “Both La Niña and a negative IOD are typically associated with below-average rainfall over Kenya,” says Muriuki in the update adding that the situation is being closely monitored by the Kenya Meteorological Department.
