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Climate scientists at the Igad Climate Prediction and Applications Center (ICPAC) are predicting an increased likelihood of above-average rainfall across most areas where the June, July, August to September (JJAS) season is significant, urging for contingency measures to protect the public from the vagaries of weather.
The forecast released at the 70th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 70) indicates “a higher probability of around 55% of above-normal rainfall over central Sudan, eastern South Sudan, parts of south-western and northern Ethiopia, western Kenya, and eastern Uganda.”
The JJAS season for the region that comprises eleven countries: Burundi, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda, shows a substantial probability of approximately 45% of wetter-than-average conditions across central to western Uganda, central to western South Sudan, southern Sudan, central to western Ethiopia, Djibouti, and western Eritrea.
“However, exceptions include coastal regions of Somalia and Kenya, parts of north-western South Sudan, and south-eastern Ethiopia, where below-normal rainfall is predicted,” says the statement.
According to the specialist climate institution of IGAD, there is a likelihood of warmer than normal surface temperatures over most parts of the region. “Probabilities for warmer than normal temperatures are most enhanced over northern and southern Sudan, most parts of South Sudan, central to southern Ethiopia, Somalia, central to eastern and southern Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi and Tanzania,” says the statement and adds, “Normal to cooler than normal conditions are expected over parts of central Sudan, western Eritrea, northern Ethiopia, Djibouti and cross border areas of South Sudan, Uganda, Ethiopia and Kenya.”
During the co-production of the forecast, various sector heads warned that with higher probabilities of wetter than normal JJAS, urged member states to put in place contingency measures to address an increase in both human and animal diseases on account of the ample conditions that provide habitats for disease vectors to multiply. “Animal and human diseases are likely to increase leading to loss of lives and livelihoods,” they warned, adding that damage to infrastructure in some of the areas could make it difficult for the public to access various services.
The experts are further calling for prior planning as the increased rainfall in the various river basins in the region, could see a rise in cases of flooding leading to displacements, noting that there could be a high chance of an increase in Sexual and Gender-Based Violence (SGBV).
Among the positive impacts, the experts indicate that, pastoralist mobility will be reduced as more livestock keepers access pasture and water within their areas, thus reducing inter-communal conflicts as well human-wildlife conflict.
Speaking at the meeting the Deputy Executive Secretary of IGAD Mohamed Ware, emphasised the urgency of collective action, noting that the GHA is experiencing unprecedented climate extremes, ranging from droughts and floods to unpredictable rainfall, “putting our food systems, water resources, and livelihoods at serious risk,” he said and added that, “We must institutionalise climate services and work together across borders and sectors to ensure climate risks are integrated into every decision. The future of our region depends on it.”
