As Kenya grapples with mounting fiscal pressures and unprecedented trade challenges, the International Relations Society of Kenya (IRSK) and Konrad Adenauer Stiftung (KAS) convene on the 12th of November 2025 in Nairobi Geoeconomics Forum bringing together policymakers, diplomats, and economic experts to chart a path forward for the nation’s economic security.
The forum comes at a critical juncture for Kenya, just days before US Vice President J.D. Vance’s scheduled visit to Nairobi from November 24th – 27th, which will mark the first high-level engagement between the Trump administration and Kenyan leadership since President Donald Trump assumed office.
Kenya’s public debt surged to Ksh 11.36 trillion as at March 2025, representing approximately 67.4pc of GDP and placing the country at high risk of debt distress, with interest payments consuming about a third of tax revenue. Recent reports indicate that seven out of every ten shillings collected by the government now go toward debt repayment, leaving minimal resources for essential services.
The debt crisis has been compounded by significant revenue shortfalls. According to National Treasury documents, the Kenya Revenue Authority collected Ksh 2.26 trillion by the end of April 2025, falling short of its Ksh 2.51 trillion target, projecting a total revenue shortfall of Ksh 253 billion.
Beyond the debt burden, Kenya faces mounting challenges in its crucial trade relationship with the United States. In April 2025, President Trump imposed a 10pc baseline tariff on all Kenyan exports to the US, effectively nullifying the preferential treatment Kenya had enjoyed and increasing tariffs from 0.3pc to 10pc – a more than 30-fold increase.
More critically, the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which provided duty-free access to the US market for Kenyan exports, expired on September 30th, 2025, with the U.S. Congress failing to pass an extension before the deadline. Economists posit that Kenya’s average weighted trade tariff with the US is expected to nearly triple to 28pc without AGOA renewal.
The economic implications are severe. Kenya exported approximately Ksh 60.6 billion worth of goods to the US under AGOA in 2024, primarily textiles, with the sector supporting 66,804 jobs in Export Processing Zones. The Central Bank of Kenya estimates the country could lose as much as $100 million annually in export revenue, representing 13pc of Kenya’s total exports to the US.
US Vice President J.D. Vance’s expected visit to Nairobi marks the first official visit by a high-ranking US Executive since President Trump came into power. The visit, following the G20 Summit in South Africa, is anticipated to focus heavily on trade negotiations and the future of US-Kenya economic relations.
Key topics expected on the agenda include the status of AGOA, which President William Ruto has stated will be extended for one year, though the US government has yet to officially confirm this. Any renewal would require approval from the US Congress.
The Nairobi Geoeconomics Forum will bring together high-level stakeholders, including senior policymakers from relevant ministries, economic and trade experts, diplomats, scholars and representatives of bilateral and multilateral organizations to develop coordinated positions on key issues.
“We expect the forum to produce actionable policy recommendations that will bolster Kenya’s economic resilience, safeguard critical sectors and enhance competitiveness,” said IRSK CEO Leonard Wanyama. “It is part of our year-long initiative on Kenya’s foreign policy, focusing on the critical intersection of geopolitics, geoeconomics and geosecurity.”
