Kenya’s opposition politics is cracking under the weight of ambition, and the loudest fissure has come from the National Liberal Party (NLP).
Their presidential candidate, Dr. Augustus Kyalo Muli, has declared that his party will not automatically support either Kalonzo Musyoka or Fred Matiang’i, insisting instead that he is the fresh alternative destined to reshape the 2027 race.
“We will form the next government or be part of the winning coalition,” Muli thundered, in a statement that has jolted Azimio’s fragile unity. His words were not just defiance—they were a direct assault on Kalonzo’s legacy.
“Forty-five years of Kalonzo’s leadership have not benefited the community. It is time for new leaders to rise,” he charged, igniting a war of words that threatens to split the Kamba vote and destabilize the opposition’s arithmetic.
Azimio in Disarray
Azimio’s center of gravity is already wobbling. Uhuru Kenyatta, as coalition chairman, has thrown his weight behind Matiang’i. PNU has defected to Jubilee in Matiang’i’s corner. Kalonzo, meanwhile, has entrenched himself under the “United Opposition” banner. The rest of Azimio remains undecided, leaving the coalition’s unity hanging by a thread.
And while Azimio struggles to hold its center, ODM is tearing itself apart from within. The fallout between Party Leader Oburu Oginga and rebels led by Edwin Sifuna and Babu Owino has left Raila Odinga’s party visibly fractured. ODM’s split is noisy, public, and bruising. Muli’s quiet rebellion, however, is equally dangerous—he is breaking Azimio itself, less dramatically than ODM’s implosion, but with potentially more devastating consequences.
The Numbers Game
NLP now claims a membership of over 500,000. On paper, that may sound modest. But in the unforgiving mathematics of Kenyan politics, those numbers are seismic. In 2022, President William Ruto edged Raila Odinga by a margin of just 200,000 votes. Against that backdrop, NLP’s half a million members are not a footnote—they are a potential kingmaker bloc.
Muli knows it. His refusal to bend to Kalonzo or Matiang’i is not just bravado; it is a calculated gamble that his numbers, however underestimated, could tilt the scales in a razor-thin contest.
The Rise of an Insurgent
Muli is not waiting for consensus. He is aggressively carving his own lane—championing marginalized communities, rallying coastal voices, and promising bold, unifying leadership.
His rhetoric is deliberately provocative: a dare to Azimio’s establishment, a rallying cry to voters weary of political dynasties, and a direct challenge to Kalonzo’s grip on the Kamba community.
Months earlier, the Agikuyu Council of Elders quietly endorsed Muli, granting him blessings to campaign in Mt Kenya. Though not headline news today, the move underscored his growing influence and hinted at a potential GEMA–Kamba alliance that could redraw Kenya’s political map.
The elders urged him to forge unity between the two blocs, a call that now resonates louder as Azimio’s cohesion falters.
