As the March-April-May (MAM) rainfall cycle for 2026 commences, the nation finds itself at a critical juncture in the management of its hydro-meteorological risks. These “Long Rains,” while essential for our national food security and hydroelectric power generation, have increasingly evolved into a complex security challenge characterized by high-intensity precipitation and flash flooding.
To address this, the state has activated a comprehensive mitigation framework that transitions from traditional reactive relief to a sophisticated model of anticipatory action and strategic coordination. This shift is centered on the operational excellence of the National Disaster Operations Centre (NDOC), which serves as the primary multi-agency command post ensuring that every arm of government—from the military to local administration—acts as a single, cohesive unit against the encroaching elements.
The foundation of our current preparedness is rooted in the bitter lessons of history, particularly the catastrophic floods of 2024 that devastated the Tana River basin and urban informal settlements. However, a significant turning point in our national disaster narrative occurred last year during the landslide threats in Elgeyo Marakwet. We witnessed a tremendous success story where, despite high-risk saturation levels, fatalities were prevented through a rigorous “Whole-of-Government” approach. This success was achieved through the seamless cooperation of the Ministry of Interior, the Kenya Defence Forces, and the Kenya Red Cross, all coordinated under the NDOC’s unified command.
By pre-emptively relocating vulnerable populations based on real-time geological sensors and weather telemetry, the state demonstrated that disaster is not an inevitability but a manageable risk when multi-agency coordination is prioritized over siloed institutional responses.
The NDOC’s role in this exhaustive strategy is to act as the central intelligence and logistics hub, bridging the gap between scientific forecasting and ground-level execution. This involves the continuous synthesis of data from the Kenya Meteorological Department into actionable tactical orders for County Disaster Committees.
Beyond domestic coordination, the NDOC ensures that Kenya’s response remains aligned with best international practices and global institutional frameworks. We are fundamentally guided by the United Nations’ Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, which mandates a shift toward understanding disaster risk in all its dimensions of vulnerability and hazard characteristics. This global alignment is mirrored at the continental level through the African Union’s (AU) Program of Action, which promotes the integration of disaster risk management into sustainable development agendas across the member states.
Regionally, our efforts are bolstered by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) through the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC). This regional cooperation allows for transboundary hazard monitoring, ensuring that rainfall patterns in the Ethiopian Highlands or the Lake Victoria basin are factored into our local flood-mitigation models. Such agreements and institutional frameworks provide the legal and technical scaffolding for “Early Warning for All,” a global initiative that Kenya has championed to ensure that no citizen is left uninformed of an impending surge.
The success in Elgeyo Marakwet is the gold standard we seek to replicate nationally, where the “Whole-of-Government” philosophy ensures that resources—ranging from heavy earth-moving equipment for clearing drainage to aerial surveillance for marooned communities—are deployed with military precision.
International best practices now emphasize “Anticipatory Action” as the most cost-effective method of disaster management. This involves the pre-positioning of life-saving supplies and the release of emergency liquidity funds based on “triggers” or thresholds reached in the forecast, rather than waiting for the physical onset of destruction.
To avoid the failures of the past, specifically the encroachment of human settlement on riparian lands and landslide-prone escarpments, the state is now enforcing strict land-use policies as a matter of national security. The tragic failures seen in previous years in areas like Mai Mahiu were largely due to infrastructure being overwhelmed by human-induced blockages and unregulated construction in natural waterways. Therefore, a comprehensive approach to the MAM rains must include the aggressive restoration of these natural “drainage arteries” and the maintenance of a 30-to-60-meter riparian buffer zone.
In recommendation of a path forward, it is imperative that we formalize the National Disaster Risk Management Bill to provide a permanent legislative anchor for the NDOC’s multi-agency mandate.
We must also continue to invest in “last-mile” communication technology that utilizes satellite-based cellular broadcasting to reach remote pastoralist communities and urban residents simultaneously.
Furthermore, the “Sponge City” concept—pioneered in international jurisdictions to manage urban runoff through green spaces and permeable surfaces—must be integrated into our urban planning to mitigate the perennial flooding of Nairobi and other major towns.
We must also institutionalize the “Whole-of-Government” model used in Elgeyo Marakwet as a standard operating procedure for all forty-seven counties, ensuring that the local leadership is fully integrated into the national security grid during high-risk seasons.
In conclusion, the MAM rains of 2026 present both a challenge and an opportunity to demonstrate the maturity of our disaster management systems.
By leveraging the expertise of the NDOC, adhering to the strategic mandates of the UN, AU, and IGAD, and maintaining the disciplined coordination seen in our recent success stories, we can safeguard our national progress.
Disaster resilience is not merely a technical requirement but a pillar of our national stability and sovereignty. As we face the clouds of the MAM season, we do so with the confidence of a nation that has moved from a history of reacting to tragedy toward a future of proactive, coordinated, and scientific risk management.
Col (rtd) I. K. Guleid, MBS, Consultant: National Defence, Security, and Disaster Management
