Climate Scientists at the Kenya Meteorological Service Authority (KMSA) are urging county governments to put in place anticipatory action while considering the worst-case scenario. They say this is in order to save lives and property ahead of the anticipated El Niño-driven heavy rainfall during the short rains season of October, November, and December.
A Disaster Risk Management and Anticipatory Action Expert at the Kenya Meteorological Service Authority (KMSA), Misiani Zachary, is warning that the El Niño rains expected during the short rains season could begin with torrents at the onset.
“The two signals, the strong El Nino and the positive Indian Ocean Dipole, could enhance the rainfall, triggering an early onset of the season which could begin with torrential heavy rainfall resulting in flash floods over different parts of the country,” said Misiani during a webinar organized by the KMSA and themed, El Niño 2026: Evolution, Forecast and potential impacts in Kenya.
Misiani is urging anticipatory action based on a worst-case scenario in three counties, including: Homabay, Kisumu and Nakuru, which he says are expected to suffer the consequences of Lake Backflow that could see communities displaced. He says among the lakes that could be affected by water backflow are Lake Victoria and Lake Naivasha.
Misiani says this could compound the already existing challenge of rising lake levels on Lake Victoria, Lake Turkana, as well as the Rift Valley lakes, including Lake Baringo, Lake Bogoria, Lake Elmentaita, Lake Naivasha and Lake Nakuru, “it is anticipated that this could lead to mass displacements.
The Disaster Risk Management and Anticipatory Action Expert says the five river basin in the country including; Tana, Athi, Turkana, Ewasonyiro and Lake Victoria could also see heavy water inflows “So if those basins are likely to have excess water, then there is a higher likelihood of riverine flooding along the main rivers,” he says and adds, the heavy rainfall could also fill the main water reservoirs including the dams leading to outflow which could displace communities downstream.”
He says the rains will have impacts on infrastructure, disrupt the education calendar and render key areas inaccessible.
Deputy Director in charge of Public Weather Services at the Kenya Meteorological Service Authority (KMSA) Hannah Kimani attributed the depressed rainfall that has affected most of Western Kenya and the North Rift Valley region to the evolving El Nino phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean that began early in the year. The Deputy Director urged for effective use of weather forecasts provided by KMSA, saying that the Met Service had predicted an early onset of the long rains season.
“So there is potential for crop failure in some parts, especially over the North Rift, but for people who heeded to our advisory informing farmers of the early onset to the rainfall season, those who used the information will have a bumper harvest and they can use the current dry warm weather to harvest the crop and avoid post-harvest losses,” she said and added, “But for the ones who planted late, there is a potential of crop failure as a result of El Nino.
Hannah, at the same time, urged for productive utilization of the expected rainfall during the October, November to December short rains season in the eastern sector of the country.
