Climate scientists at the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), have forecast depressed rainfall in the greater horn of Africa region.
In a forecast released during the 71st Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 71), the forecast for the October, November to December (OND) short rains season, indicates a likelihood of below-normal rainfall across most parts of the region except parts of south-eastern South Sudan, north-eastern and south-western parts of Uganda, where wetter than usual conditions are forecasted.
In the statement read by the Acting Director of Kenya Meteorological Department Edward Muriuki, OND is an important rainfall season for the equatorial Greater Horn of Africa, contributing up to 70% of the annual total in parts of Kenya and Somalia.
“The October, November and December rainfall is important for the equatorial greater horn of Africa, contributing up to 70% of the annual total in parts of Kenya and Somalia,” said Muriuki who is also the Permanent Representative of Kenya to the World Meteorological Organisation and added, “The forecast points to a higher likelihood of below normal rainfall across most parts of the region except parts of southeastern South Sudan, northeastern and southwestern parts of Uganda where wetter than usual conditions are forecast.”
On the other hand, above-normal rainfall is expected in western parts of the region, particularly in south-eastern South Sudan, north-eastern and south-western Uganda, northern Somalia, and parts of northern Rwanda.
“Regions such as southwestern Ethiopia, northwestern Kenya, central to northern Uganda, most of Rwanda and western Burundi present a chance of above normal rainfall.”
The forecast further indicates an increased likelihood of warmer-than-average surface temperatures across the GHA, while average to cooler-than-average conditions are expected over cross-border areas of Uganda, South Sudan, Ethiopia, and Kenya, as well as localised areas of north-western Sudan.
The Deputy Executive Secretary of IGAD, Mohamed Ware, emphasised the need for collaboration, stating, “The Greater Horn of Africa is at the frontline of the climate crisis. Climate information must reach the last mile, and only through collaboration and early action can we turn forecasts into meaningful messages that drive timely action.”
Environment, Climate Change and Forestry Cabinet Secretary Dr. Deborah Barasa who spoke at the start of GHACOF71 noted that bridging the early warning gap requires shared knowledge, timely information, and a united regional approach.
“Kenya remains committed to supporting regional frameworks that strengthen climate resilience across our communities,” she said.
