Scientists and the Kenya Meteorological Department have issued an urgent forecast that the El Nino phenomenon is set to return between September, 2026 and January, 2027. Coming off the back of early 2026 rains that tragically claimed over 100 lives, the Meteorological Department’s high-accuracy modeling leaves no room for hesitation. This early warning provides Kenya with a critical window of opportunity, but advanced notice is only as valuable as the preparation that follows it.
As a young boy living through the 1997 El Nino, the memories remain vivid. Driven by rapid sea-surface warming in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, that historic event triggered relentless downpours that claimed over 1,000 lives directly and indirectly through subsequent disease outbreaks. More than 300,000 Kenyans were displaced, thousands of livestock perished, and property worth billions of shillings was destroyed, resulting in one of the worst humanitarian crises in the country’s history.
In 1997, Kenya’s population stood at approximately 28 million. Today, that number has more than doubled. Rapid urbanization accelerated by rural-to-urban migration and devolution has created densely populated urban hubs and informal settlements that are far more vulnerable to extreme weather than they were three decades ago.
The primary threat to major cities like Nairobi remains inadequate surface drainage. When heavy downpours strike, concrete streets rapidly transform into dangerous rivers, posing immediate hazards to motorists and pedestrians alike. While current initiatives by national and county governments to expand, clear, and unblock urban drainage channels are commendable, these interventions must feature high-quality engineering capable of handling unprecedented water volumes. Crucially, citizens must match these efforts with responsible actions. Proper waste disposal is essential, plastic and domestic refuse directly exacerbate urban flooding by choking critical waterways.
Finally, preparation must extend beyond the immediate threat of floodwaters. History demonstrates that the deluge of El Nino is almost always followed by severe drought. Allowing billions of litres of rainwater to flow unused into oceans and lakes represents a massive lost opportunity. National and county governments, alongside individual households, must immediately invest in rainwater harvesting technologies particularly in Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASALs) to capture this abundance. By pairing infrastructure resilience with strategic water conservation, Kenya can mitigate the immediate dangers of flooding while building long-term security for the dry spell to come after El Nino.
Geoffrey Onditi serves as the Principal Producer (Central Stations) at the Kenya Broadcasting Corporation (KBC).
