The latest weather outlook by the Kenya Meteorological Department indicates the presence of Elnino conditions and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).
The weatherman in the November forecast, says the events are typically associated with above-average rainfall over Kenya during the short rains season that will peak this month.
With the El Nino threat still in effect, Met however clarifies that the actual rainfall amounts can vary from year to year, depending on the strength of the El Nino event.
Nine days ago, President William Ruto announced that the Kenya Meteorological Department had scaled down its El-Nino alert to short rains.
Most parts of the country are witnessing heavy rains which will continue into January with increased probabilities in parts of the Northeast and the Central Highlands.
“This enhanced rainfall will be as a result of El Nino conditions and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). El Nino conditions are currently present in the Pacific Ocean while the IOD is positive in Indian ocean, hence the expected enhanced rainfall in November” Met says.
“In some parts of the country, the rains will continue into January 2024. Rainfall cessation is likely to occur in several parts of the country in January as well” the outlook states.
Flash floods
Flooding is expected primarily in regions with low-lying terrain such as Northeastern and Northwestern areas, the Southeastern lowlands, the Coastal region, Lake Victoria Basin, and segments of the Central and South Rift Valley.
Isolated episodes of storms are likely to be experienced in several parts of the country during the month” the forecast warns.
Temperature is expected to be warmer than average in several parts of the country, except in the Northeast and parts of the Coast (Tana River), where temperatures are expected to be cooler than the average cumulatively.
Landslides and mudslides are likely over parts of the Highlands East and West of the Rift Valley, Central and South Rift Valley as well as parts of Southeastern lowlands.
Transport
Motorists have been cautioned to be alert as the anticipated intermittent flash floods could result in the disruption of transportation infrastructure, particularly in regions including the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin, South Rift Valley, Tana River Basin, Northeastern, and sections of the Southeastern lowlands.
“Reduced visibility caused by the weather conditions may lead to a rise in road, marine, and aviation accidents. Motorists are advised to take caution while driving in rainy conditions to minimize road accidents” the statement advises.
