The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has said announced that strengthening El Niño event is expected to reach record levels between October and December 2026.
According to WMO’s latest Global Seasonal Climate Update noted that El Niño will continue to intensify ahead of its forecast peak in December warning that it is likely to bring above-average temperatures to much of the globe and shift rainfall patterns, increasing the risk of drought and floods in different regions.
“Sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific are forecast to increase to record levels during October-November-December 2026, reflecting the strengthening of the El Niño event which will drive weather patterns and impact economies, ecosystems and communities across the globe,” WMO stated.
The Global Seasonal Climate Update provides authoritative information about large-scale climate drivers that include the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and tropical
Atlantic sea-surface temperatures which all impact seasonal temperature and rainfall.
It complements WMO’s El Niño/La Niña Update, which is issued quarterly.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo noted that: “El Niño is firmly established and strengthening rapidly. WMO forecasts indicate a near-100 per cent likelihood that it will persist through February 2027, potentially being one of the strongest since at least 1950,” said Saulo.
The Agency says the forecast is based on 13 national and international centres from Washington to Tokyo to London to Pune built on real-time exchange of ocean buoy, satellite and radiosonde data coordinated by WMO.
“El Niño doesn’t add new heat to the planet. It releases heat the ocean has already been storing beneath the surface which is why a strong event so often becomes one of the hottest years measured (as with 2024),” Saulo said at the Global Heat Forum in Bangkok.
She said that the ocean El Niño is drawing from, is the warmest ever measured meaning there is more heat available to release in the atmosphere.
“The ocean it’s drawing from is the warmest we’ve ever measured it. There is simply more heat available to release,” she added.
Sea-surface temperature anomalies across the central-eastern equatorial Pacific, the region at the heart of El Niño, is measured by the widely used Niño 3.4 index. This increased markedly from an average +1.6 °C above normal in June 2026 to +2.5 °C above normal in August.
For October-November-December, the seasonal average Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly is forecast to reach approximately +3.7°C, peaking around December.
WMO says this is the highest since observations began and is stronger than the previous record of + 2.6 °C in November 2015-January 2016.
Other ocean basins are also contributing to the seasonal outlook. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole, a climate pattern that can strongly influence rainfall around the Indian Ocean, is expected to peak in October and then decline. The October-December seasonal anomaly is forecast at about +0.5°C.
Meanwhile, sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Atlantic basin are forecast to remain above normal, according to the Global Seasonal Climate Update.
El Niño and La Niña
El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of a naturally occurring climate pattern known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), involving fluctuating ocean temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, coupled with changes in the overlying atmosphere.
ENSO has two opposite extreme phases: the warm phase, known as El Niño, and the cold phase, known as La Niña. Between these extremes lies a third state called ENSO-neutral. El Niño can typically last up to 18 months and La Niña up to three years.
El Niño is characterized by unusually warm ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific. In contrast, a La Niña event is characterized by unusually cool ocean surface temperatures in the same region and an intensification of the prevailing east to west surface winds. https://wmo.int/themes/el-nino-la-nina-phenomena
